is the weather severe enough?, page-20

Australia has a coast line of 7500km around the tropics from Brisbane to the same latitude in WA.
A Cat 5 cyclone will do damage over a 50km radius when it crosses the coast.
Assuming a Cat 5 every 10 years crosses the coast then Brisbane has a 1 in 1500 chance of being impacted.
There's more chance of another French revolution happening than Brisbane being hit by a Cat 5.

And that's what it's all about Pinto ... the laws of probability.