No I am neither an expert for diamond pipes nor for geomorphology. Nevertheless I follow the discussions here since 2015 and some of the poster here provide very knowledgeable information. Due to my knowledge the ratio of prospective pipes is 1:100 not 1:200. Taking into consideration that there are 200 or more kimberlites identified on Lulo concession around Cacuilo river and Lulo river the chance is also not so bad from a statistical perspective. Actually they already identified 7 diamandiferous kimberlites where 1 might be on the border to being economic. But the main reason is that there are extremly rich alluvial findings which is a strong indicator for at least one rich kimberlite pipe. It is of course a gamble, Lucapa unfortunately wasted a lot of the possible shareholders value by huge dilution and they drove companie's expansion to fast and in a non-substainable way. But yes I still see a good chance that they find an extremly rich kimperlite pipe, although there is never a guarantee. Don't know whether they find it in one year, 5 years, ten years or fifteen years but I am still optimistic. My biggest objections are high dilution, low share in Lulo mine and general corruption in Angola. But I am still - and always was - optimistic that Lucapa is having a good chance to find an extremly rich kimberlite. It is just the question what this will mean for the share price in the end.
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