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Sorry, I'm looking through the rear view mirror to sum up the main theme for lithium miners in 2023CY, which if you didn't notice or ignored, lithium prices fell ~80%, followed by lithium miner share prices (i.e. commodities 101).
However, major pure play lithium miners (PLS, ALB, SQM) have not seen an 80% drop in their respective share prices between 30/12/22 and 30/12/23, (i.e. PLS + 7.34%, ALB - 33.58%, SQM - 23.67%). I understand you only have a short term time horizon, but what does the "past year" relative outperformance of miners vs. lithium prices tell you about the future. For example, is there a new wave of ex-China demand coming online over the next year or so, is the market taking a forward view on that demand, are the above lithium miners profitable a current lithium prices, will that profit grow inline with their expansion plans.
I remember a while back you disclosed you worked in statistics. Does an actuary working for an insurance company have the luxury of using past events to inform future insurance premium adequacy to pay for uncertain future events.
When you arrived here 15 months ago, did you not use your statistical skills to assess the expected supply/demand balance for 2023 and how crowded the lithium space was after a vert solid 2 year boom in lithium prices. As the old saying go's, high prices are a cure for high prices, we were closer to the top of the cycle and not the bottom in late 22CY. Around that time, I remember a few members here tried to help you, give you a few pointers back then, but your propensity to ignore was impressive. Statistically speaking or according to statistics, had you done the work, factored in/assessed the past, the volatility you have experienced in the lithium mining sector over the past year would have been, lets say, less messy.
Anyways, back to statistics, I'm not sure how you apply these skills to the markets, individual stocks and the individuals and organisations that participate, so many moving parts, global and political influences, etc, etc. Does an actuary working for the insurance company go bullish on raising insurance premiums when a cup and handle pattern is formed from the retrospective data inputs, and just out of curiosity, wrt to your medians, do you plot the closing share price at the start or at the end of the trading session
(20min delay)