Weebit - 2024 and beyond, page-154

I'm thinking about investing here and read through the last investor presentation. I'm struggling to understand the future earnings potential - has this been stated anywhere, by the company or by analysts?

From the presentation, the 2028 market size for embedded ReRAM will be ~US$1B (taking it at face value):



I would calculate potential WBT revenue as Market Size $ x Market Share % x Royalty %.

What's a reasonable market share assumption - 20%? Wikipedia lists WBT among six companies developing ReRAM products/designs.

What's a reasonable royalty assumption - 4% of sales? Really just guessing here.

Those assumptions give a 2028 revenue estimate of US$1B x 20% x 4% = US$80M = A$120M which (after tax) would equate to an NPAT of ~A$80M after tax. As a royalty stream, it's basically all margin.

If 50% was paid out in dividends, that's 40c per share which doesn't seem too exciting - a 10% yield on today's SP.

The big question is what P/E Ratio to expect. Who would you benchmark against? The PERs of some high-growth, high-margin tech companies seem crazy but obviously achievable:

Cochlear: 57
Xero: 171
Pro Medicus: 134
Wisetech Global: 98

A P/E Ratio of 100 in 2028 would give a MC of $8b, or 10x growth from here. That's a bit more exciting.

Please mark my homework!! Has anyone got their own assumptions, or done similar calculations, or has anything been published? I'd be very happy to see my work corrected. Full disclosure, I have not trawled through all of the HC threads, so I'd be happy to be pointed to a previous thread/post.

Thanks in advance.

Figaro