Ann: Strategic Review Update, page-314

Refer post for data on lepidolite and what I think of GS - Post #: 71667622

The key is actually producing good quality concentrate at required specs (i.e. specifically relating to deleterious elements). You can run a part of your production process - that is if you are vertically intergrated - at a loss if you can makeup that loss in another part of the value chain (like producing lithium chemicals). The strategy here by China IMO is about seeking to get low feedstock prices as a short term to medium term measure to strengthen your downstream credentials and market concentration (see graph below) (and prevent if you can emergence of new non-Chinese based converters in other countries).

The interesting thing too me is whether PLS is actually getting the so-called spodumene price been quoted by some on here - in the past my recollection is PLS has been getting a higher price than what the quoted spodumene price is stated to be. Lithium pricing still remains quite opaque IMO and quality matters long term (refer embeddd post above).

The problem with CXO at this stage was it mis-forecast the mix of fines verses coarse spodumene and it is coarse spodumene that is a key to a DMS process and recovery rates. From a previous CXO quarterly:

I suspect when prices improve, a capex program will be done to improve recovery rates - at the moment seems a very very sensible strategy by CXO to work of stockpiles (and wait for price recovery which it will come IMO). I wish you all the best and hope CXO remains a viable long term player as well. I suspect lithium prices will recover in 2024 in any event because ultimately demand will outstrip supply (and the GS forecasts IMO are quite dodgy).

From this post is this below - Post #: 71669290

"China is using (or threatening to use) its internal crap lepidolite (see embedded post above) and brine resources to try and control lithium prices. I see that strategy going pear shaped just like what you saw in iron ore in the longer term. Ultimately quality matters - and that quality, when your internal resources are not that great, can only come from imports. It is also why China is trying to get its grubby hands on IMO IMO IMO good quality lithium resources located offshore China (specifically those in Africa given FIRB won't allow takeover IMO of Australian resources).

Western economies are starting to wake up that there is too much risk if you allow China to dominate markets. Western governments seem too me to finally getting an understanding of what this graph means and why they are starting to seek locating downstream activities away from China - they can also see the strategy China invokes given what it has sought to do of late in rare earth markets - China bans exports of some rare-earth processing technology | Business | nny360.com and China's rare earths dominance in focus after it limits germanium and gallium exports | Reuters.

One of the key things for lithium price stability is reducing China's dominance in the market.


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All IMO IMO