The re-rate journey, page-257

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shootingstar

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08/01/24

12:49

Post #: 71774449
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Originally posted by Istina: ↑

There is an interesting short little article from Simply Wall St talking about price-to-sales (P/S) ratio in relation to Lumos. The title might sound a little ominous, but it is a good read on medical industry valuations, and in the case of Lumos, its potential if the stars align.

If you start to factor this type of total sales or revenue that is possible for FebriDx, then Lumos could well end up in the multiples of dollar range, considering the economic valuation was looking at FebriDx guided treatment in the US valued at $5.74 billion usd, of which roughly $3.4 billion usd is for the POC sales if it captured the entire market. This is roughly 150 million tests sold annually.

When you start doing the math, assuming Lumos captures this space or just becomes a market lead in it, then even at a modest adoption rate we could start to see Lumos in the billion dollar valuation space sooner than you might think.

I did try to use the P/S ratio to evaluate a future share price for the US alone but depending on the various factors and market uptake including competition, we could be looking at a Share Price range from $7 to $50 using a P/S of 14x. If it was 4.3x then as high as $164 is the calculated figure. It kind of seems ridiculous, but more likely if the future sales start to do well then Lumos would likely be bought out well before reaching market saturation.

Anyway this is just pie in the sky figures. I would be happy for others to do some sort of valuation based on projected uptake and likely market capture based on competition in the space etc.

https://**.st/stocks/au/healthcare/asx-ldx/lumos-diagnostics-holdings-shares/news/take-care-before-diving-into-the-deep-end-on-lumos-diagnosti

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Thanks Istina. I think I'd take the rather 'cautionary' tone of the article with a grain of salt. Wouldn't surprise me if the article is written by Ai (based on key data inputs for the stock). Anyway, some good click bait there by Simply Wall Street to get people signing up for additional 'reports'. On a positive, some exciting SP projections if, as you say, the stars do align.

LDX Price at posting: 9.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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