IVZ - General Discussion, page-1313

I have some approx forecasts for gas rates in the UA and LA.

Regarding the UA, I assumed 4200 psia initial reservoir pressure and 1500 psi drawdown, Z factor 0.97 and Temp 685 deg R. Given that even a small amount of dropped out condensate can reduce the permeability by 80%, the effective permeability was assumed to be 1mD at 8.5% porosity.

For the 13.9m in the UA, assuming a skin factor range of 2 to 10, the estimated initial gas flow rates are 1.5 to 2.5 mmscf/d assuming 1mD effective permeability.

If the 13.9m is stimulated (S = -3), the initial flow rate could increases to about 6 mmscf/d assuming 1mD effective permeability.

For the Lower Angwa, assuming they drill to 4300m MD, there may be a total of 63m net pay over 1200m if 21m net pay applies to the interval between 3100m and 3500m MD. Assuming a Skin Factor range of 2 to 10, permeability of 1mD, the estimated flow rates for the LA at M-2 without stimulation might be about 7 - 14 mmscf/d.