Here we go, it's getting closer to the RCF pay day.
Lucky for RCF and possibly some TMT shareholders.
Not so great for AVL,
on the books, why would AVL or any AVL shareholder require more ore "Now", a better strategy would be to pick up the TMT tenements when they fail to develop them say in two to three years.
There souldn't be two processing facilities built so close to each other. (To be clear my forecast is that neither AVL nor TMT would develop there respective projects as proposed in either of there current studies, as the value is not clearly shown, yes they show an IRR and NPV, but they are not based on solid project assumptions, nor accurate in my assessment )
Now is not the right time to merge the tenements.
If the perceived value is not clearly understood nor detailed.
Additional ore, and not near a functional plant has very little insitu value.
So RCF over valued and misunderstood there initial investment in TMT, and now needs an exit plan.
RCF invested in TMT , they then discovered it's not as great as first assessed, for an exist strategy they seem to be relying on AVL to fall for the "Merge Now" pitch.
I agree, that at some point a merger of the tenements into one project makes sense, but when and at what price.
The later being the driver. When it can be picked up for a song.
Similarly , remember Sandfire was boasting it was close to the Windimurra plant. Now Sandfire is looking to the Middle East.
Again, Windimurra assumably does not need more Ore, and Sandfire is missvaluing their ore / Concentrate.
There is nil value in shipping V concentrate out of WA for remote processing. (Similar for AVL, Remote processing as they have proposed erodes value, increases costs)
Similar can be said on Viking,
There is more V ore around already, so no need to be drilling for more. Investors not understanding and not assessing the value of Vanadium correctly.
it's not like gold, copper or nickel.
it's valued differently, so likewise needs to be assessed through a different lens.
This is all based on the assumption of progressing a project into operation, producing a product and inturn delivering that return from sales to shareholders.
However, if investors are looking to just trade stocks with no real interest in progressing to profitable production. Then you just need to be on the side of RCF and make sure you get out at the right time before the big RCF walk out.
But that's like playing Russian roulette
Best of luck to any punters.
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