Fielded a few calls, emails, msgs, etc this week and last about Wr1.
In my opinion someone wanted out. No one outside the top20 holds more than 1million shares, so it has not been retail selling that caused the drop.
Its also very difficult to analyze considering the selling has been sector wide. Broker data next week will tell part of the story.
I expect because it was sector wide, a bank or fund has taken advantage of sentiment knowing stops would be taken out and they can refill at lower prices.
They wont be beating to a buy order with this sentiment. I dont think CE could have done anything about what has happened, very much like what occurred after the MRE.
After the MRE, we got the initial reaction it deserved, but the major sell off later was Argonaut, i speculate it caused a contagion effect. Anyway, why did they sell. Argonaut is very much a Lassonde curve company. They have admitted as much during investor forums. They trade this theory on scoping studies aswell, so dont try and argue this point with me.
Anyway fast forward, sentiment is crap. I dont think CE or Wr1 could have done anything to stop the flash dump yesterday. Christmas/New Year is not "Announcement time" its holiday time. If CE had posted something on Monday, I can imagine the complaints here, "8 days into 2024 and he drop news, everyones on holiday,".
Lets move on if you are still reading.
I traded the GFC, took some hits but also took risks. I bought MQG at@24, ANZ around 10. The news then was Aus banks are dead etc. It was crap - I took a realistic mathematical and simplistic view. Australia needs operations banks to survive. It paid off.
I take a similar view now.
1. North America needs spodumene concentrate for 900 GWH of Battery Plants to built.
2. The Canadian Government has committed 30billion with Battery Plants to create a manufacturing thematic that will create jobs and progress the economy.
3. The Canadian Government has committed to an EV penetration rate that requires mining to be successful domestically.
4. Adina has the scale and size that a major needs for security. There are few others that meet these dynamics but they have issues beyond a road.
Moblan- SYA management
PMT - Big ass lake for CV5 and the rest doesnt warrant the size and scale yet to be included.
James bay for Arcadium is a good deposit, and its studies provide a great basis for Adina.
5. Combined, there is not enough deposits to feed this demand.
Anyway, the main complaint is a road. I take a even more simplistic view of this. Its a road.
So, whilst I am annoyed and frustrated at the price, I think the stupidity of the market is beyond that of the GFC at the moment. This week I saw a rock chip company valued more than wr1 in a time when lithium exploration is shot. So in the end im just sitting back, i see nothing fundamentally wrong with Adina and wr1 being a billion dollar company into the future.
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