2024 - The year of ADO, page-199

Before the fact, no matter what is said here (for or against), ADO's chance(s) of success are probability based. Assessment of probability is the province of the individual investor, based on all the evidence he/she can amass.

Individual investors develop prejudices, one way or the other, which affect probability assessments as underlying risks are either heightened or reduced. At the extremes of these prejudices the equation morphs into a virtual binary 'success' or 'fail' outcome - which it clearly is not.

In a simple extreme analogy a punter can assess a horse's chace of winning as (say) 4 to 1 when the market is offering (say) 100 to 1 - a clear case of a value bet. With a never ending sample space to choose from (a multitude of races), a skilful (accurate in terms of odds assessments) punter must win.

Not so for a large speculative investment on the stock market. Although great value can be picked, it is a one off bet, as real opportunities are hard to come across.

[IMO, this company is a real opportunity.]

As a binary (which it is not) I would put ADO in the odds range above - assessed 4 to 1 chance of achieving a 100 bagger. A great value bet, but only a 20% chance of coming off.