Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

OPT

1.27%

78.0¢ opthea limited

Important milestone: 90% enrollment achieved, timeline confirmed!, page-9

First 9 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
simons77

654 Posts.

162

18/01/24

11:54

Post #: 71940956
Share

Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

It all depends on the reported delta in BCVA.

Let’s say one trial shows a statistically significant superiority of 3 letters over sham and the other trial falls short and misses statistical significance with a 1 letter superiority only, then I would agree with you. Even after approval, the stock probably would never make it back to AUD2.40 ever again with peak sales limited to a low hundred US$ MN number at best.

Yet, assuming an absolute blue sky outcome with both drug arms showing a 6 letters superiority each, then peak sales could be set somewhere around US$5 BN. The stock would become a ten bagger within 72 hours, just to continue rising thereafter. And dilution would be nothing anybody would ever speak of again.

The next few months, 2Q CY 2024 in particular will be crucial when it comes to refinancing. A dilution of 33% is what I am ready to accept and even consider a success if - and only if! - this deal secures financing through 3Q CY2025.

How do I come to 33%?

In case of partnering, I think OPT will always keep 100% of USA, CAN, AUS and NZL which should be some 50% of peak sales. Partnering ROW for US$200 MN upfront (to meet the short term financing needs) and a 20% royalty would give away 2/3 of ROW value if I assume a 60% operating margin. Put together, OPT would give away 1/3 of OPT-302‘s value.

Doing it on its own instead, that‘s without a partner, OPT could issue up to 330 MN new shares to limit the dilution to 33%. In order to generate USD200 MN, OPT would have to do such a raise at roughly AUD1.00.

That‘s how I come to my numbers.

Expand

why do you give out 6 letters ? not 4 or 5？

OPT Price at posting: 49.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

ESR

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

NAM

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before it can buy Namoi Cotton

DEG

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

STK

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

KAL

KalGold rolls out detailed aeromagnetic survey across Pinjin project

COD

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

ACW

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

There are more pages in this discussion • 7 more messages in this thread...

First 9 Last

Add OPT (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 78.0¢		Change -0.010(1.27%)		Mkt cap ! $960.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
79.0¢	79.5¢	74.5¢	$2.420M	3.109M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1000	77.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
78.0¢	77447	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1000	0.770
1	900	0.765
3	56490	0.750
3	7133	0.745
4	12182	0.740

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.780	77447	1
0.795	50226	2
0.800	141321	5
0.805	46458	1
0.810	96458	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

OPT (ASX) Chart

Important milestone: 90% enrollment achieved, timeline confirmed!, page-9

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before it can buy Namoi Cotton

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

KalGold rolls out detailed aeromagnetic survey across Pinjin project

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Important milestone: 90% enrollment achieved, timeline confirmed!, page-9

Top Stories

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before it can buy Namoi Cotton

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

KalGold rolls out detailed aeromagnetic survey across Pinjin project

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News