Well I got the 5 years wrong. It has not been above 7 cents since December 2013. From a pure supply and demand perspective that is important and the notion of this time is different has been wrong several times since then. The initial investors bought into a traditional exploration theme well aware of that risk could leave them at a loss. It also means that buy the rumour sell the news (announcement) has held true for 10 years. That is some track record.
"Fundamentals are astrology for men" according to a dear trader friend of mine. And while this is an attempt of humour it is meant as believing fundamental calculations are reflected in the share price. I can calculate a cashflow and have done so for 30 years across businesses I have interest in, but I do not believe I am better at it then professional analysts at Bell Potter or where they come from, but it all doesn't matter if the market sell off or does not want to hold for the time required to see the outcome of the project. That does not mean sellers or lack of buyers are stupid or what ever derogatory label I see put on sellers. It means they conclude for their situation what is best.
For those who held onto the stock they have been buying into new ideas and prospects and lowered the average, but essentially being at breakeven or at a loss after more than 10 years. I do believe small investors holding less than 10 mill shares is fed up and look to exit with a small profit or even a small loss, still realising that the stock could go higher. Supply and demand control this, and we will see main struggles to clear resistance upwards be it , 3.9, 5.4 or 6,8 also having 4.4 as the magical transformation CR level. Not sure is the CR buyers still holding on and not sure traditional technical analysis is useful. One thing for sure. No system and no woodoo or software system is able to predict future price. No matter how harsh the comments are to people being cautious. If it could I am sure it would not be shared in the HHR forum. Don't fall for it and do your own reasoning.
The HHR outfit is more of a production company than an exploration company now and the multiple x on investment are less likely than an the boom or bust penny stocks. If this is now a more traditional stock investors follow the old principle of taking care of protecting against downside and let the upside take care of it self. Obviously if HHR gets new license(s), which is likely, that could attract new investors which is heavily needed to turn this around.
I think the oil and gas industry has a very different challenge and unfortunately it is not at all down to science and common sense. The paint and glue mop influence politicians and people even though it is done by irrational and no-facts based parlament of the streets, and despite most people believing in democracy, the politicians fear losing their seat if they not chime in to the agenda. I am perhaps a different generation and I accept things cannot be how I want it, but the common sense is very different than mine, and I see that as a risk to my investment. Sorry if I sound political that is not the point. The point is common sense in oil/gas agenda is over and done with IMO.
I will refrain from repeating my previous position to management, but I will say that when they announce that they pull in Bevan Tarratt due to work load I don't know whether I should cry or laugh. For all I care they could have been in the local pub slapping high 5's when someone came up with that. In retrospect I think management has been so confident in immediate success that they did not prepare well enough in time. They bought shares for the kids and designed performance bonuses instead of securing a better divestment deal, or at least a plan B.
All options are on the table as the boss keep saying. Thank god he is not a working lady laying down on that table.
HHR Price at posting:
2.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)