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19/01/24

10:08

Post #: 71958023
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Originally posted by SF@HC: ↑

Jut my observation as to what is playing out in the supply chain and, as a LT holder of Ganfeng, I never thought I would see 3 projects they heavily invested in, go down the shitter, what do they say, things happen in three's. Given their LCE contractual obligations to many tier 1 OEM's, they are currently under the pump and good to see back where they started in 2017, but only a fraction of the feedstock needed compared to what they have lost at this point in time. Will said OEM's be happy with an inclusion of lepaedolite on the menu, doubt it, thus they have a lot of work to do over the coming years.

I note major legacy OEM's (exclude Ford and GM), tier 1 and 2 are reporting record EV sales in Dec 23, yoy growth of +70% and +10% of their overall vehicle sales. According to BMI, battery cell prices have dropped to $82/kWh in Dec 23 and supposedly heading lower in the near term, demand may spike and adoption growth at a steady state. Wrt growth in vehicle sales (ICE and EV) in 2023, if it wasn't for the above EV growth, overall growth looks pretty ordinary, meaning EV continue to take market share, eat ICEV's lunch.

Meanwhile, lithium mining projects are pausing construction, expansion, some shutting down and exploration coy's turning their focus to the next shinney thing, gold, U. This all leads to the obvious, the gap in supply through 2030 widens, therefore, downstream demand destruction once again.

ALB's call on Wednesday means they will lag in the next up cycle, as they did in the last, though they're carrying a shyte load of debt (3.5 bill), which IMO is exposing how close to the wire they are flying, needing to hunker down for such a short period is telling.

In the meantime, as they did in the last downcycle, PLS expanded their capacity, though this time its all organic growth and ready to play in the next upcycle. Let's hope their countercyclical stance works like the last cycle, checks out IMO.

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I totally applaud your forward vision

To those (not you) looking backwards :-
Rather than endless viewing of past charts (containing so much happy nostalgia)
and presumably longing for a repeat of past share price bubbles,
why not be more efficient, productive and forward looking ?

The chart which follows looks many years ahead.
Has someone with more skill than me considered PLS earnings and share price
potentials based on a conservative impact of these estimated future vehicle sales
and their theoretical impact on PLS exports?

Even better would be low, medium and high expectations.
Then emerging actuals could be meaningfully plotted against those forecasts.

I know it involves hard work.
Have any reputable analysts done it for PLS already?
I (and I imagine many others) would be happy to plot future PLS quarterly results
against reputable forecasts if and when the future has been skilfully estimated.

Chart Source :- https://www.ev-volumes.com/

PLS Price at posting: $3.55 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

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