We think our Investment, GUE can deliver on two fronts for the US - uranium AND enrichment. In November, GUE rebranded to “Global Uranium and Enrichment Ltd” from Okapi Resources, and has just won our award for the most accurate company name in our Portfolio. GUE has uranium assets in the US and Canada AND also does enrichment technology - it does what it says on the tin. At a high level, here’s what GUE has going for it: 1.Significant JORC Resource, exploration upside - GUE has a pre-existing 49.8Mlbs uranium JORC resource in the USA which the company intends to drill out further soon. This drilling could help lay the foundation for a scoping study and clear a pathway to development. It also has projects across the US and Canada, bits of prime real estate which could be quickly brought up to speed in a uranium bull market where capital is easier to come by for uranium exploration. 2.Breakthrough enrichment tech, with precedent for major re-rate - Silex Systems is GUE’s only “uranium enrichment peer” on the ASX. Silex has re-rated from a market cap of ~$35M to a ~$1BN in the space of two years on the back of US government initiatives, technical advancements and geopolitical factors. Silex has recently surged ~65% in the last 4 weeks. Silex owns a 51% stake in an enrichment technology JV with Canadian uranium major Cameco (who holds the other 49%). GUE owns 21.9% of its enrichment technology partner and is currently capped at ~$31M. If GUE is able to validate, scale up, and get regulatory approvals for its tech, we think it could follow a similar trajectory to Silex over time as the enrichment technology matures and is proven to work at scale. These two aspects of GUE form the basis for our Big Bet: “GUE re-rates to a +$250M market cap by achieving a major technological breakthrough with its uranium enrichment technology and/or is acquired at multiples of our Entry Price by a US focussed uranium major looking to gain access to its assets and technology” NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, and it will require a significant amount of luck. There is no guarantee that it will ever come true. Some of these risks we list in our GUE Investment Memo. To read our February 2023 deep dive note launching our GUE Investment: CLICK HERE TO READ OUR FIRST GUE (OKR) NOTE Drawing from the note, below are the eight reasons we originally Invested in GUE back in February 2023, well before the current uranium bull market entered the frame: Why we Invested (February 2023):Note: Ticker code has been updated from the previous OKR to the current GUE in the text below. (1) The US is completely dependent on foreign uranium and uranium enrichment. It’s making domestic uranium assets and enrichment a national priority GUE has projects across four North American uranium districts, in addition to its 19.9% stake in an enrichment technology company. We think the combination of technology and assets will make GUE attractive to acquisitive uranium majors and governments as a target of funding. (2) The only other ASX uranium peer with enrichment technology is capped at $1BN with 51% ownership of its technology Silex Systems is GUE’s only “uranium enrichment peer” on the ASX. Silex has re-rated from a market cap of ~$35M to a ~$1BN in the space of two years on the back of US government initiatives, technical advancements and geopolitical factors. Silex owns a 51% stake in an enrichment technology JV with Canadian uranium major Cameco (who holds the other 49%). GUE is set to own 19.9% of its enrichment technology and is currently capped at ~ $25M. *** UPDATE: Since February 2023, GUE has increased its stake in its enrichment technology to 21.9%. If GUE is able to validate, scale up, and get regulatory approvals for its tech, we think it could follow a similar trajectory to Silex over time as the enrichment technology matures and is proven to work at scale. (3) GUE has a 49.8Mlbs uranium JORC resource in the USA - development potential Located in Colorado, USA, GUE’s most advanced US uranium project has a JORC resource of 49.8Mlbs at a grade of 540ppm. Should future drilling be successful here, we think this project could move into a scoping study down the track. (4) Low EV relative to other uranium peers, and none have enrichment exposure *** UPDATE: GUE held $1.7M in cash at September 30th, and is currently capped at ~$31M. We are looking out for the December quarterly report to be released, which will have a more up to date cash balance. Today, the company also sold an 80% interest in a lithium ‘side-bet’ for $2.125M - $175k cash and the remainder in shares - more on this later. Following completion of GUE’s February 2023 capital raise ($5M) and subsequent payment for its stake in the enrichment technology ($3.1M), GUE will be trading on an Enterprise Value (EV) of ~$23M (assuming a 15c share price). GUE currently has a total JORC resource base of 49.8Mlb. On a pure “pounds in the ground”/EV basis, this compares favourably with other ASX uranium peers such as Peninsula Energy (53.6Mlbs, ~$170M EV) and Alligator Energy (53Mlbs, ~$113M EV). While these two peers are more advanced in developing their assets, GUE is the only one with exposure to uranium enrichment. (5) Highly prospective uranium exploration ground in Canada’s largest uranium producing district The Athabasca Basin in Canada is home to some of the worlds highest grade uranium projects and produces ~20% of the world’s uranium. We see drilling success in Canada as a significant source of upside if a major discovery is made here. (6) Strong Management and Board, with North America focus *** UPDATE: GUE has had a board change - Fabrizio Perilli is now the Non-Executive Chairman. We are impressed with Managing Director Andrew Ferrier’s background in private equity where he was focussed on managing US uranium assets and investments, as well as his degree in chemical engineering. We think this makes him well suited to understanding the significance of the enrichment technology, and how to get uranium deals done in the US. We also note the GUE management team’s significant US mining experience and in-country team - this is important for getting projects advanced as quickly as possible. (7) Tight, loyal register *** UPDATE: OK, maybe the commentary below was slightly premature, but it still stands for 2024. With a relatively low number of shares on Issue, we think the capital structure of GUE is set up well for a re-rate if the company can deliver milestones and/or macro factors bring more market attention to uranium. We think GUE has been flying a little under the radar up until now and the story is going to get bigger in 2023. (8) Advanced stage company GUE is not just an exploration company - as noted above, it has a JORC stage Uranium project and a stake in uranium enrichment technology. This fits with our 2023 Investment theme of adding exposure to more later stage companies to our Portfolio, which could begin production sooner in the current commodities supercycle. What is Uranium enrichment and why is GUE’s enrichment technology stake important?Before uranium can be used in nuclear reactors it needs to be “enriched” - an industrial process that brings natural uranium, which contains only 0.7% of U-235 (Uranium-235), to a uranium content of 3-5%. |