Weekly Review REE Stocks - 19th Jan 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis. I also have history of 2023 for those interested in longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This list contains 26 REE related stocks and no new additions this week.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 made a new All Time on Friday at 4842, finishing the week with gains of around 1.2%
- Volatility Index VIX is just over 13 - still very bullish but was below 13 for some time, so again VIX pointing to slight divergence when indices have moved to ATH, Yields and Dollar Index also on slight uptrend, again diverging from indices
- Bitcoin very volatile, making up to 10% swings in a day or two - indecision state
- Sentiment Indicator - at Greed 72 - hovering around this mark for around 6 weeks or so, bullish but surprising that indices made a new ATH but Sentiment did not get to Extreme Greed - are there some punters who don't expect this rally to continue? Another divergence
- Russell 2000 again not performing as well as other indices - so small caps, risk-on assets still in some strife. Unfortunately the indices are still driven by Magnificent 7 Tech stocks which are making fresh 52 weeks highs as well along with SP 500
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- After making a new ATH on SP 500, chances are the surge may continue for sometime up to 5000 or so, but many analysts feels that it needs further consolidation before a significant move upwards, so something to watch
- Key economic data this week around - PCE, PMI, Jobs, etc - so a little bit more significant than last week, especially PCE used by Fed
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot price is a monster move and lot of stocks now doing 52 week highs. I wrote that last week, and the narrative is same - more big gains in U stocks this week, 18 of 34 U stocks that I track in my Weekly Report made new 52 week highs. For this calendar year of 3 weeks, U stocks are up 32%. This is really incredible and best time U stocks are having after 2021 rises. The whole sector is in Euphoria state. This euphoria is a double edged sword - sometime it signals tops, sometimes means lot of new money coming in sector so that the rise is maintained. Lets see which one it is. So main question in many people's mind now is - will this parabolic rise continue or will there will be a consolidation before the next leg? I feel some consolidation may happen, but best to follow price action.
- Lithium Sector overview - Spot prices are on constant decline and has affected a lot of stocks. It is just going the opposite of U stocks. Many Li stocks every week making new 52 week lows. Li stocks I track, lost 8% average for the week and are down 14% for this calendar year of 3 weeks. ALB play from 112 to 127, consolidate, to 145, consolidate, now back to 112 level (though finished on 115 on Friday). Now what happens? Double bottom or make new 52 week lows? Odds favour further slide at this stage, and if so will 100 hold? The current trend signals more pain for Li stocks before we see bottoming and then possible reversal, but markets can surprise so best to follow price action rather than make up one set of mind.
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 10% U, 25% Li, 15% Others, 50% cash. U stocks made very good gains in last 2 weeks. My portfolio two weeks back was 60% U stocks. I have exited most average 50% gains. U stocks can continue to rise and then I will be back in.
Reason I sold out U stocks was I want to play level to level, phase by phase. In June 2022 I had a very big profit across the board and it dwindled quickly by August, a big profit wiped out. After that I decided to go with this approach - mainly, minimise losses rather than maximise profit. So if I bought something for 10c, now sold at 15c at 50% profit, next phase when I buy, say for 16c, and its not looking good, I may immediately exit around break even or small loss. If it was old buy, I would think I have bought at 10, I have lot of buffer - and if things go bad it may go back to 10c and all my profit is gone. May not be the best financial way of playing stocks, but suits my character and behaviour - we all have to do what we think we can manage.
Li stocks have started buying as feel can't pick the bottom, but will exit on any weakness - just based on stats of what has happened for over a year in that sector, its better to be out on any weakness. So have bought fair few, but selling immediately on weakness at break even or small loss, then buying again after 10/15% drop. This saga may continue till it bottoms - don't know how long it will take. In the process I may lose 5 to 10%, but if stocks drop 30/40% then its still all right. Again my way of managing things, may not be best.
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Also playing with some REE and Health stocks
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- Lost key level of 30 this week. Now in uncertain territory, either 25 play or get above 30
- I sold my stocks at 31 as I felt 30 does not look like holding, I had my buys from 25 as I wrote last week. I play level to level. Next, will either buy around 25 or 30+
- The REE sectors stocks I track is now down 8% across 26 for the week and 11% down for the year
- Overall REE sector is not doing well, very few stocks in green for last year - only ENR/MEI/WA1 are in green for last year. So out of 26 stocks, only 3 in green. Not a good look.
- Any announcement can have an effect of sp - both up and down
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)