A fairly informative discussion occurring on the MEI threads over recent Aclara release of its PEA for brazil play.
Post #:
72080087 is the initial post from cornbred.
I break down the aclara project and replicate it's SS/PEA with a whole bunch of missing information and present actual revenues and profits at todays REO price. Post #:
72081796
copy and paste of my response with assumptions links and opinions.
The long and short is Aclara used excessively high REO projections. The project barely makes a profit at todays prices. Both VMM and MEI would make 5 times as much profit for half the size plant.
Again showing why these projects are superior. VMM edging out the RvR category for me given 1/6th-1/7th the MC.
happy reading.
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Located Aclara PEA/SS
https://assets-global.website-files...e97f4c1f9_PR_Carina Module_PEA VF_clean_2.pdf
Some curiosities in this though IMHO - now i'm back on the desktop.
4800T of TREO for 470M USD does not add up at all IMO. That's 100usd/kg received for a 90% MREC.
let dig deeper.
I found the concentrate content of the valuable elements dy tb ndpr here.
do not advertise external links.au/...arina-module-rare-earths-project-1039144.html
They do not publish their full REO suite so unfortunately you can only input the TREO and the valuable elements and then make an assumption of the make-up of the remainder of the elements albeit low value.
I assumed the ppm of the remainder of the elements by averaging the compositions for similar REO plays in brazil.
I thus arrive at this as their composition.
largely aligns to the NdPr content and Dytb content in their publish resource in november.
https://www.mining.com/sponsored-co...esource-at-its-carina-module-in-goias-brazil/
metallurgical response found
https://www.aclara-re.com/carina-module
again unreported NdPr... so i'll have to figure that out based on what they report the NdPR content to be in the concentrate. Annoying...
here is the product below
So with several inputs and several variables left blank. Need to try and estimate for the unreported recoveries of each element.
The below arrives at the 26% NdPr and 4.7% Dytb with the overall recovery 36.9% as per previous table.
Assume a 92% TREO concentrate.
There we go. That's probably ball park what we're actually talking about. I land at pretty similar tonnage and using their opex per tonne see annualised opex is same.
If i had the full suite of elements and the full suite of recoveries i could replicate it but this is my best go in 10minutes without using multivariant calc to get the exact inputs based on unknown variables.
At todays prices (or close to as per SMM) Aclara's carina would generate 14M USD p/a for a 9.6mtpa plant costing 576M USD to build. Aka project is junk.
Compare this to MEI's project. Even if i use a low value head grade (aka their average jorc or lower) we generate 86M usd p/a profit for only 5mtpa plant. Half the capex cost probs and 5 times the profits...
input a higher feed grade assuming high grade resource targetted and up MEI to 9.6mtpa.
That's at todays prices... Blow their project to smithereens.
VMM for a comparison using it's average grade. = 145M USD profit p/a. at 9.6mtpa.
IMO both MEI and VMM vastly better investments given the better grades (2-3 times higher) with better recoveries. Proving viability even at very depressed prices.
Carina almost losing money at todays prices imho as per my calcs. Wouldn't touch.
The only way they have generated those bogus revenues is using a forecast or much higher grade REO prices.
Disclosure i hold MEI and VMM.
SF2TH
(20min delay)