Comprehensive response - enjoyed that
What is a decimal point between friends...must have been thinking about their heavy rare grades
Grade is a good indicator, in-situ value per tonne better, NSR better still....etc etc etc. There are all simple comps but there are so many variables, including risk overlays, that it highlights the issues of using comparables.
Interesting point on LYC. They have been high-grading Mt Weld since first production and only have 14-15mt of the high grade ore left...at the current new targeted throughput, that would mean they are all out in approx 12 years. If you are right on that cut-off...then Mt Weld would probably (subject to price, FX yada yada) close.
They know they had an issue...which is why they spent ~$500m on Mt Weld to increase production capacity and install an apatite processing circuit. The apatite grades are closer to 5%...but the recoveries lower (undisclosed for both the high grade and apatite since May 2006, when an independent technical review of Mt Weld by Behre Dolbear estimated the high grade recoveries closer to 60% than 70%)...so Mt Weld is now blending high grade and low grade and their new cost base is significantly higher.
Still...better than running out of feedstock in just over 10 years
When it comes to mineral sands versus hard rock open cut, or even underground, then clearly a shallow mineral sand deposit....with the minerals effectively crushed, sized and free dig is going to have a cost base that is a fraction of any hard rock open cut. Which is why many mineral sands assets can still be profitable when their in-situ value per tonne is less than US$20 per tonne. Like comparing IAC to hard rock, eh?
A 1% monazite grade at surface, using rough monazite conc pricing (~US$5,000 per tonne spot) equates to US$50/tonne and 3% circa US$150/tonne - great margins when total mining/processing costs of most mineral sands assets is approx US$10 per tonne.
My read is that they aren't chasing those ultra high grade boulders (which at spot prices, have an in-situ value close to 100g/t of gold equivalent...pre yield, net pricing yada yada). They are saying that they believe there could be a deposit of this high grade REE-Nb-Sc mineralisation sitting under that 'overburden' of high grade monazite sands (high grade, because most mineral sand assets have monazite grades closer to 0.01%) - which would be a game changer - but too early to tell.
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