(Previously I used to write my report on this thread. This phase from Nov I was writing on the general page thread. Unfortunately that thread is quite toxic and unreadable. I know there are lot of people who don't have a purpose and objective in life, trolling thru social media and making questionable anonymous posts is not only highlight of their life, but maybe only source of engagement, and maybe only thing which provides some comfort to their miserable lives. So I will not take away that pleasure and let people squeeze out a bit for their living. Hopefully one can leave this thread for doing Daily Reports etc. Just a request, everyone is free to do what they wish. Thanks.)
Li sector remains at critical level?
Yes AZL remained flat at 2.3 on a low volume of just over 6m shares traded, similar volume to yesterday.
Yesterday I had written around how Li sector behaving, the downtrend, whether bottom is there, how much more to get to bottom. I had written how ALB play yesterday was important and it needs to get above 127 to give signs of reversal of sector. Unfortunately it didn't go above, finished slightly in red. Its around 121 level, somewhere in middle between its 52 week low of 112 and possible 128 to cross first stage. Although some US Li stocks were in green yesterday, but not ALB. Last few days ALB is showing an intent, goes up, but gets immediately slammed down by shorters etc. So although its ahead of 115 from Friday, it has not crossed 127 above finish. That part where it gets slammed down from its day's high does not bode well for now - just shows its not ready, yet. So we are at a critical stage, still with some good concerns for now.
The whole Li sector is at a critical level. Most punters thinking - is this the bottom or more to come? As I have mentioned before I use ALB as one measure. Last week it had tested the bottom at 112. For last 2 days somehow its holding the level. There was a chance it could move quickly towards 100, or do double bottom and move up. It has moved up but has not crossed the first critical level around 127.
AZL though had another good day I thought. Again, it was another few hundred dollars difference between finish at 2.3 even or at 2.5, nearly 10% up. Strong buying and line wipe off 2.4. I feel there are some who would have taken this much up, if overall Li sentiment was even neutral, if not positive. Then we may have been closer towards 4 rather than towards 2. But, it is what it is. We get ups and we get downs. We have to play both. There are some who always play up - more with luck than brilliance. There are those who play down, many times the worm comes up but sometimes not. So downside is always a difficult play. And then there are those who only play with words, mostly appearing on down days, neutral days, etc and disappear under some hole if its doing all right. So we each do what we are best at.
Personally no trades for me today. As I wrote yesterday, waiting for a change/reversal from here. My heads at 3.1 and oppies just over 7 now so down for now.
So what may happen next week? Today's trading gives some indication that AZL wants to go up. But we will need strong hands, and big hands to push up. There was a line wipe of 2.4. I feel if there are couple more, some will join us seeing this action which may propel us above 2.9 to start with. 3.5 is still the key for me for any strong bullish trend. We also need Li macro/sentiment, ALB to be on our side. Though they are not great, but things can change quickly. Sometimes very quickly. PMT had reached 67 couple of days back. It got an announcement, which was good but not ground breaking. It reached 87 today - 30% up from its low. If sector sentiment was not bad, rise could have been have much more higher. But still to get 30% gain in couple of days, just shows, if sentiment changes, there is a good chance, Li stocks may rise between 50 and 100% in reasonably short period. But the big question is - when will that happen? Answer is - we don't know. Its best to follow price action rather than predicting and waiting for something - at least I try to do that, not completely, but to a reasonable extent. We have seen a large drop. We could still go lower. But the percentage drop going lower will be much smaller than the percentage gain if it goes up, hence risk/reward may be good, but still dyor. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your long weekend and all the best.
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