today's afr, page-19

you all forget one thing

remember how long it took to sort out the BBI deal.that started in Nov and ended up being sorted in February and that's with everyone knowing what the deal was and basically agreeing.

Management used the same cashflow/solvency argument to extract quite a good deal for all those debt holders ,including the lending syndicate.

Now we'll have possibly 20 different choices which the company and lenders will be ummming and arrring about,seeking the best return for themselves.Some want it quick and some just want all their owed on paper.

Some will be easy throwouts,like the cheapshot bids.The rest get more complicated,if its not a whole of business sale.The rats and mice are mostly gone and the balance sheet is clearing up.

what if you get a exceptional offer on say the pipeline.but that then drops out a reasonable offer for both the powerstation and the pipeline,if you take it.Many combinations like this probably exist.

What if the bits are worth more than debt and our equity,but will take six months to settle,but an outright sale is worth less than the debt.Numerous guarantees and warranty issues to resolve on any sale.Some demanding more,others less.

Then equity arguments,45% want an equity investment and 45 just want all their money out.

On and on.I can see it taking a fair while yet and Xmas isn't far away.

It could be november before they decide and feb before a resolution to put to the vote.

all the while,either it keeps going as a company,which it will,until its resolved.OR and the syndicate won't want the OR

The longer the better,as every cent it generates,comes off its debt.Intersetingly last 6mo showed greater internal intersegment sales of $150m,it would be great if that extra was to retail customers.

First 6mo generated $48m cash.Gas settlement trashed the second half with the lump sum backpayment.

we are 3mo into this first half.