Yes, whether $1m, $2m or even $3m is is rather academic, given this point in the cycle (and also given the seasonality inherent in EZL's earnings, with significant second-half skew).
For context, today's update is shown with previous half-years (to avoid tax-related distortions, I've presented Pre-Tax figures, ignoring all non-operating items such as changes in investments), which reveals the sheet extent of the cyclical crunch that has befallen EZL:
(For what it's worth, I've included a figure for JH2024, but its really a notional forecast, given very little robust thinking has gone into its formulation).
Even on the basis of a seriously under-earning business experiencing the mother of all downturns in its business, I still make the stock valued on an EV/EBITDA of 5x and EV/EBIT of just 6.7x (treating the interest income as an operating item which, given the nature of this business, I argue it is).
In my mind, those sorts of multiples are more appropriate for extreme peak cycle levels, not once-in-a-generation, bombed-out, cyclical low business conditions.
Of course, this time things could be different, and the ECM cycle could be dead.
But I somehow doubt it.
In the light of this update, I suspect there is likely to be some sticker shock selling tomorrow, and so I expect to be adding to my position.
EZL Price at posting:
89.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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