stand alone or buyout, page-8

db76,

you said...
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based on the last meaningful takeover transaction Shell-AOE of $0.95/GJ 2P and $0.60/GJ 3P and ESG 31/12/09 Reserves , makes ESG $0.95x988=$938M and $0.60X1818=$1091M
...so with 1023M shares on issue gives a sp range approx $0.92 to $1.07...."
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Only a small error but you forgot to ADD $938M+ $1091M.

so the $2029 bn/1023 M shares ~ $2 sp.

So your conclusions become wrong, and Mr DC's $2.4 bn is not far from your total corrected valuation of $2 bn.

ESG are drilling the above and below seams and upgrading the reserves later this year. So ESG is undervalued at $0.93 sp and with a reserves upgrade to come later this year - I am sticking with the calculations I did six months ago suggesting a $5-$9 target (based on Hartley brokers methodology and their gas valuations of $1.50 2P and $1.00 3P) See post #5374902

Hartley's gas values may be high, and I admit the following is rough, but if the reserves upgrade triples later this year, then my correction of your calculation of $2, then becomes $6 sp.

Any TO offer less than $5 is going to look weak, and will definitely, just by the initiation of an offer bring the international spotlight.

A truly creative strategists mind might want to wait until ESG is gobbled up, then gobble up the gobbler. I believe late last year STO was the only Australian company flagged internationally as a M&A target. Lots has happened since in that area, but worth thinking about.