Ann: Investor Presentation, page-15

market is pricing Welchau like a junk bond that only will pay out less than 1 cent in the dollar ie a 1% chance of a payout , put another way the market thinks Welchau has a 1% chance of success otherwise we would be over $9.00 right now if probability of success was 100% according to the market based on the above estimated insitu value for Welchau
Personally I think Welchau has a probability of about a 1 to 10 % chance of success so a worthwhile wild cat investment for me
The rest of ADX's producing wells gives some intrinsic value to ADX , but the company needs to get of its arse and start making those wells profitable as their lifting and admin costs seem very high per BBL .