That's all provided that things stay stagnant and that is never the case and does not seem to take into account any form of change. So while I understand where you are coming from you seem to be crystal balling this thing out to 10 years based on the status quo.
Let's see how things play out. You said it yourself "unless things are addressed" ...so what happens if they do address things?
You need to leave room in your analyses for the company's ability to improve its position. BTW for what it's worth "expensive" is a relative term that can be quite hard to define.
Cheers
BW
Beach Energy Limited, page-455
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