Chart, page-483

And the Li turmoil continues i?

Yes WC8 gained 3c to finish at 43 on a moderate volume of just over 12m shares traded. Volume slightly less than last 2 days where we did above average volume. But what was significant today was it was all about Buy today - so strong buying was happening. Also, WC8 is playing a bit of ping pong, gained 4c 2 days back, lost 3.5c yesterday, gained 3c today. So suddenly its in a slightly volatile phase. Sometimes reflective of some behind the scenes action happening - but still early days. Its still playing within the trading range of last 2 weeks. A finish above 52 may signal a range change, otherwise we don't know whether its a normal churn or a significant action.

Yesterday US Li stocks again did not do well. Big stocks like ALB/SQM had a big drop around 5%. As I had written, ASX Li usually follows US Li, and it played accordingly. Again not massive drops on a single day, but because similar play is happening for sometime, cumulative affect is significant. Still no clear signals of any firm reversal at this stage, so sector has to be played with caution - something I have been calling for sometime. Probability says that it will turn one day, but what we don't is when that will happen, and how much more stocks can slide before it turns. Chances are that those playing for medium to long could see that recovery, short-term will need to follow and track day by day. I am playing mixed at this stage, few playing for long, others playing with very soft hands, exiting and buying lower - its working because prices are going lower.

Personally a lot of action for me today. Yesterday I had written I had sold some last 2 days and bought back later to reduce my average. But today that trick didn't work. I sold one lot on open, and then waited for it to come down, but it didn't want to. Then I could suddenly see some strong buying - it was similar to 2 days back, but today it was on a day where Li stocks were not doing well - so that was different and a peculiarity. It gave me the same feeling when I played it last time from 30s to 90 where I exited - something is happening, some strong buying as if someone is taking position. Could be a false lead, so will be watching closely next few days. So started buying when a big one was taken out on 41.5, so bought a fair few at 42 and small on 42.5 and 43. I have increased my position here today by 30%. It also meant that my average which I was pulling down, is going in other direction now - it moved from 38.5 back to 40. Its still early days for any confirmation as if a special play is in place, but there are indications. Also Li sector is in a precarious position, it wasn't great last time as well, but now its worse. So not sure what effect that will have. Will have to take day by day. Also doing a lot of short-term play in my other key sector - Uranium, which actually is doing quite well. I had two big wins there in September and January, hence playing with soft hands to see whether another big play is coming now or with a gap.
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So what may happen tomorrow? ALB again panicked yesterday and dropped around 5% to 114 level. Its close to its 52 week low of 112 where it has gone twice. Last time it held, but this third time could be tricky. Another big stock SQM did a 52 week low. Overall markets were down big time yesterday, so that didn't help the cause. ALB is on slide from 153 mark late in December with no signs of clear bottom at this stage. A crucial test coming up for ALB - will 112 hold or this time we see it slide towards 100. Upside, needs to get to at least 127 for any comfort, looks an uphill task, but can happen. Will we see WC8 go against market and continue its rise towards 52. A good Li day will certainly help, but WC8 can carve its own path. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.