I've updated my model to estimate where I reckon EPS will come in for the transition year (6 months) and even on a conservative basis I reckon we come in around 13c, possibly a bit higher depending on production costs.
13c (A$0.18) is for 6 months remember but still comes in at a P/E of about 11, based on only 6 months and no contribution from Who Dat but with the higher shareholding due to the purchase. Still seems significantly undervalued IMO.
As Edson states above, KAR is looking like a massive cashcow.
$170m in cash (after paying for Who Dat. FY24 approved capex is $50-57m. Bauna payment is about $87m. Potentially an additional $100m of capex for the currently unapproved 3 well appraisal / exploration at Who Dat East, West and South.
So total potential capex requirements of $244m of which we already have $170m in the bank. Even with revised down guidance I have EPS of between US$0.34-0.43, which in AUD is $0.48-0.61 representing a P/E of between 3.2 and 4 which seems very undervalued.
Bearing in mind we have only relatively small capital commitments of $244m and $170m in cash, I'm expecting cash generation in FY24 of between $550m-$700m, it just shows how cash generative the business currently is.
I would love a small token dividend for TY23 as I think it will show KAR's transition to a producer will be complete and may just change the markets mind on KAR. It doesn't have to be much. A 5c dividend over 800m shares is about US$40m or even A$0.05 would be good so a bit less than US$30m. I believe they have the short term cash, $170m in cash (with headroom in borrowings) with $87m due out around about now (but there will also be more receipts, there was a cargo loaded on the 31st hence the lower sales numbers for the half (something like 5.5m production, 5m sales was due to timing) and I think they have the cash to pay a small token dividend with a proper dividend policy to be implemented from the HY results for FY24.
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Ann: December 2023 Quarterly Report, page-5
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Last
$1.44 |
Change
-0.045(3.03%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.122B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.48 | $1.48 | $1.44 | $7.950M | 5.468M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 16364 | $1.44 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$1.45 | 6448 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 34887 | 1.435 |
6 | 12497 | 1.430 |
3 | 36502 | 1.425 |
12 | 115071 | 1.420 |
7 | 17273 | 1.415 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.450 | 3448 | 1 |
1.455 | 25002 | 2 |
1.460 | 7171 | 2 |
1.465 | 5002 | 1 |
1.470 | 5002 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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