NXS

5.00%

21.0¢ next science limited

Ann: Appendix 4C & Quarterly Activity Report - 31 December 2023, page-20

First 20 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
EDDYDudes

245 Posts.

66

01/02/24

21:29

Post #: 72193831
Share
Originally posted by MikeMelb1969: ↑

If the company can achieve the objective of becoming cashflow and EBITDA positive within this financial year (which they have committed to and guided), then we should not need more capital.

Then the key drivers of the share price will change from funding uncertainty to the normal drivers for a novel early stage biotech company.
Financial
Gross Margin currently circa 80% and stable.
Growth Rate of 160%, 31% and 89% in the last three years and guidance for the current year of between 63% and 81%.
Product
Continuous growth in clinical evidence.
Advancement of major study.
New product pipeline.
Operational
Continuous improvements in supply chain.
Growth in client base.

There are more key drivers, of course, but to my mind the above drivers are demonstrating continuous and significant progress.
In my view, once the company demonstrates cashflow positivity, it is correct to pivot valuation and share price expectation to a multiple of revenue approach and or DCF approach.

An example, if NXS does become cashflow positive in Q4 2024 and guidance is from US$36m for the year.

Q4 '23 Revenue = US$7.1m and lets assume a very conservative 10% Q on Q growth rate or 46% annual growth rate (much lower than achieved to date - last three year compound growth rate of circa 85%)

Q1 '24 Revenue = US$7.8m
Q2 '24 Revenue = US$8.6m
Q3 '24 Revenue = US$9.45m
Q4 '24 Revenue = US$10.4m (Lets assume this is when they break even and cashflow is positive)

Total '24 Revenue = US$36.25m (Let's then assume a continuation of the 10% Q on Q growth rate)

Total '25 Revenue = US$53m
Breakeven required US$10.4m/quarter or US$41.6m

Potential '25 profit = US$53m - US$41.6m * GP% of circa 78% = US$8.9m = AUD$13m profit and with the growth rate, stable margin, patent protection, new products....., I would not be surprised to see a earnings multiple of 30+ times.

Lots of water to flow, I know, but I personally think these numbers are very conservative.

I would love to get others thoughts and feedback.

Expand

$1.34 per share by the sounds of it.
great breakdown and whilst there are some variables in OpEx such as people costs, the mapping of revenue growth looks good and we are looking at a near 4X from current prices
NXS Price at posting: 34.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

TBN

Tamboran kicks off Shenandoah South pilot project with SS-2H well spud

HVN

Consumers cautious according to Harvey Norman, as profit slumps 35% in FY24

CYM

WA Nifty copper project steps closer to restart with Cyprium Metals inking $40M loan from Glencore

Consumer Staples Shine Amid Retail Slump – Key Stocks to Watch

HLX

Helix investor makes partial takeover bid, proposing board changes

PYC

PYC achieves key designation for drug aiming to treat blinding eye disease ADOA

VYS

Vysarn acquires Waste Water Services Pty Ltd for $7.5M; WWS to become subsidiary as expansion continues

CCO

The Calmer Co’s Anthony Noble reflects on record breaking FY24

Week 35 Wrap: HotCopper’s top watched; ‘iron ore winter’ has started; Oz inflation @ 3.5% MoM; Harris fracking flip

LLC

Lendlease sells off US east coast construction operations in latest global divestment push

There are more pages in this discussion • 11 more messages in this thread...

First 20 Last

Add NXS (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 21.0¢		Change 0.010(5.00%)		Mkt cap ! $61.35M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
20.5¢	21.0¢	19.0¢	$31.60K	161.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	7800	20.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
22.5¢	4944	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	40000	0.190
1	54000	0.185
3	58000	0.180
1	60000	0.175
2	67500	0.170

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.225	4444	1
0.240	272	1
0.250	31000	3
0.255	75000	1
0.270	61438	2

Last trade - 14.52pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

NXS (ASX) Chart

Ann: Appendix 4C & Quarterly Activity Report - 31 December 2023, page-20

Tamboran kicks off Shenandoah South pilot project with SS-2H well spud

Consumers cautious according to Harvey Norman, as profit slumps 35% in FY24

WA Nifty copper project steps closer to restart with Cyprium Metals inking $40M loan from Glencore

Consumer Staples Shine Amid Retail Slump – Key Stocks to Watch

Helix investor makes partial takeover bid, proposing board changes

PYC achieves key designation for drug aiming to treat blinding eye disease ADOA

Vysarn acquires Waste Water Services Pty Ltd for $7.5M; WWS to become subsidiary as expansion continues

The Calmer Co’s Anthony Noble reflects on record breaking FY24

Week 35 Wrap: HotCopper’s top watched; ‘iron ore winter’ has started; Oz inflation @ 3.5% MoM; Harris fracking flip

Lendlease sells off US east coast construction operations in latest global divestment push

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Appendix 4C & Quarterly Activity Report - 31 December 2023, page-20

Top Stories

Tamboran kicks off Shenandoah South pilot project with SS-2H well spud

Consumers cautious according to Harvey Norman, as profit slumps 35% in FY24

WA Nifty copper project steps closer to restart with Cyprium Metals inking $40M loan from Glencore

Consumer Staples Shine Amid Retail Slump – Key Stocks to Watch

Helix investor makes partial takeover bid, proposing board changes

PYC achieves key designation for drug aiming to treat blinding eye disease ADOA

Vysarn acquires Waste Water Services Pty Ltd for $7.5M; WWS to become subsidiary as expansion continues

The Calmer Co’s Anthony Noble reflects on record breaking FY24

Week 35 Wrap: HotCopper’s top watched; ‘iron ore winter’ has started; Oz inflation @ 3.5% MoM; Harris fracking flip

Lendlease sells off US east coast construction operations in latest global divestment push

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News