You are right, that does show growth drop off. But still, lets give it a shot.
EUR45m revenue
lets say 30% EBITDA margin
that's EBITDA of EUR13.5m, or AUD22.5m.
After reconstruction, we have about 100m shares (remember, we had 1-for-10 when we fled Australia).
so that's forward EBITDA per share of 22.5c (2.25c in the old).
What multiple to use? Well, that's actually not really straightforward. I would call this high risk, especially when our CEO is getting sued by the regulator in Australia. I would probably give it 5x EPS, maybe 3x EBITDA, which would make it worth about 70c (about 90% down on our pre-suspension close).
but lets imagine that we bypass that. ASIC drop the case. We say it's a huge growth stock, and we will give it a 50x EPS multiple, maybe 30x EBITDA. I think we can all agree that's pretty generous. That would make it $6.75 per share, which of course is still a 37% reduction in share price since the close 4 years ago.
Am I missing something? This has been ramped so hard, and we'd need to justify 50x forward EBITDA (based on management predictions) just to get back to neutral.
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