I think we've dealt with the "security risk issue " and just isn't credible in the light of the troops wthdrawn from NATO borders and lack of air defence on airfields near NATO borders and if it was a concern then Finland joining (because of the war) meant russias reaction to it failed completely .
The motive was always the land ......that southern stretch joining russia to Crimea even more strategic than Donbas and Odesa is what putin wants now and ultimately connection to Transnistria .As well as control of Ukrainian government .
Nor do I agree with the comment about sanctions although happy to concede russia to some high degree have evaded (most) but at cost and inconvenience -SWIFT and some aspects still bite .The loss of Nordstream gas sales more significant IMO .
A long time yet before russian economy falls over but it is not well and it is stressed greatly by an expenditure which on the NATO side is spread around .
But ..."The big question is: what will the likely outcome be and of course
at this stage and given the unknown variables which you have
nominated , it would be meagre speculation to hazard a guess."
.......I thought you phrased very well ......US future actions top of that list of unknowns
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