Thanks for setting out the basis of your potential revenue calculations of what is potentially possible in the next 18-24 months as CC and Cap rollouts complete.
When it comes to the % revenue to be derived from the B2B payments flow, unfortunately it is difficult to understand at this time what % SPX earns as the payments flow processed includes a number of different payment types with differing % revenues coming to SPX, some of which may likely not derive any revenue at all.
For my purposes, I prefer to only consider the SaaS, lending and B2C revenue streams as those are more predictable and hence lend themselves better to projecting what SPX's revenue might be at different scales.
The issue with the lending revenue is also that under the debt warehouse, the revenue is at 21.2% yield (currently), however, we know that AirPlus is now the preferred route to scaling the lending/early payment products as it has a smaller impact on the balance sheet of SPX (no first loss capital) and is more easily scalable. Unfortunately, at this time it isn't clear to me what % revenue SPX will be earning from the AirPlus lending, so will need to see some feedback from the company about $$ deployed via AirPlus and the revenue SPX has made from it to then work out how that may look at scale. Perhaps we may see some of this data in the next 4C as AF said in the webinar that they did their first transactions on AirPlus in mid-January (from memory).
Where the figures used in your assumptions may well differ is that the % earned by SPX on the B2B payments may end up being skewed more heavily towards card payments where the AirPlus lending product is deployed to the Cap network as AirPlus' lending product is a virtual MasterCard and hence can only be used over card rails where SPX earns a better clip than if an EFT payment was made.
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