The report states that the estimated 1.3 Tscf has been proven up from the M-1 and M-2 well areas drilled so far. That seems fine.
It would be helpful to know if they valued the M-1 and M-2 regions based on 20% or possibly 10% of the total expected field area of 200 Km2?
20% of 6.5 scf is 1.3 Tscf. Based on detailed calculations I made in the past using reservoir pressure, reservoir temperature, gas gravity and 2-phase Z factor, the relationship I derived between net pay thickness for each 10m and the number of Tscf is approx:
Tscf = 1.15 * net pay thickness (m)/10(m)
Therefore, 6.5 Tscf would be equivalent to about 56.5m net pay in the UA and LA, which means an additional 21.6m is required by drilling deeper and from log calibration. In my opinion, the additional 21.6m should be easily achievable. If they drill as deep as possible, my feeling is it should be possible for the total net pay at M-2ST to exceed 70m.
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