Hi Guys
I have just stepped into the forum after a train trip back home, and while pleased with todays share price action I am a little concerned about all of the apprehension being expressed by the non holders in respect to the latest developments
Guys, take some heart from the share price action, and give some thought to the following:- IMHO, Hot Copper at its best is for entertainment purposes, not financial advice, and that applies to this post as well as the plethora of dummy spitting diatribe we are constantly seeing by non holders.
- Try and understand that the Cudeco MD is focused on wealth creation not wealth destruction, if only because as a large shareholder he stands to gain more than most.
- Feel comfortable in the fact that no-one is expecting you to buy into a company that you just don't like. Even if you feel compelled to sit at your screen, day after day year after year, expressing your concerns.
- There are strong grounds to suggest that the company is being targeted corporately. If you must have a view, Occams Razor provides some guidance as to what to do with all of the extenuating circumstances surrounding the company. Review the facts in a clam and detached way, maybe do some genuine Due Diligence and simply make your own assessment of the situation. No-one really cares what others think anyway on a forum such as this, so don't feel a need to try and convince anyone.
- Understand that the company has delivered on its promises with 1 million tons of copper proved up, even though the external consultants have presented it in different terms than what was expected. The copper is definitely there, it is very real, and it will be able to be mined very profitably. Take comfort in the fact that the resource has been approved with high confidence levels by professionals qualified to do so.
- The mining and processing costs published yesterday now enable all and sundry to do their own informed 'guesstimations' of what sort of valuations are achievable for the company as Rocklands is fast tracked into mining. MPS may now need to do another revision with some concrete numbers to go by, and I can assure you that the Institution introduced to the register today has already done its own review and liked what they saw.
- The company is now on the front foot with many of its cards on the table, and the supportive involvement of a large institution is a major breakthrough - no matter what way you look at it. Keep in mind that Dundee/Goodman were fence sitters, not company supporters.
- The company did mention to shareholders that there would be no massive capital raisings at current levels, and they did so to avoid unwarranted fears about massive dilution. Please try and understand that the company in facilitating a 'friendly' to a hopefully much larger stake, has not massively diluted, and has actually enhanced the financing of a mine by doing so - not jeopardized it.
- Try and understand that the company has served warning to all and sundry with an interest in gaining exposure to Rocklands, that the game has changed - despite a successful and unexpected sting operation launched on the release of the jorc upgrade. The industry knew about the low ball jorc and there was certainly plenty of evidence here on Hot Copper to that effect. You see, the industry is aware of how resource modeling software works! The fact that big holders have not been selling stock (and that includes the Nominee Intuitions who constantly churn their holdings) is indicating that the jorc issue is more of a perception problem. A problem IMHO caused by mining software accepted within the industry that smooths anomalous grades, but in doing so just doesn't do justice to the unique Rockland's resource. The clue is that the company is designing its mine around much higher grades that have been validated by copious amounts of diamond drilling, metallurgical testing and even trial mining. Above all, the big holders are telling us that Rocklands is a goer by their reluctance to sell shares.
- Personally I think the part of the register that needs cleaning up is the Nominee Accounts rather than the remaining retail investors. The Nominee Account holders now face a difficult decision with their churning mindset, as they could be sacrificing their shares to a hungry proactive supporter of the company. At cheap prices too! What a difficult dilemma for them!
- I suspect that the Azure facilitated Data Room will have a different feel about it now, with those seriously interested in getting involved in a quality copper asset, feeling a little panicked that they might get left behind.
- Speaking of panic, the commentary by a lot of non holders is suggesting that they have got on the wrong side of recent trades with a company move from left field that has wrong footed them. The cumulative short positions climbing back up to around 700,000 provides a clue, with the usual 8% of trades going short again yesterday. Try and get used to it, as there will be some interesting twists and turns up ahead with the company now better placed to call the shots.
- The indentity of the Institution will be known shortly when a substantial share holder arrives. If we get subsequent substantial share holder notices, don't panic as it could mean that on market buying has increased their stake in the company. That will actually be a positive as it will mean less free float to manipulate prices through churn.
- As long as you retain your 'non holder' status you cannot lose money no matter what decisions management take while attempting to progress the fortunes of the company.
- For the non holder concerned about the massive loss of funds with a payout to Azure for services rendered, relax because you aren't in any way effected. And for your info, I saw somewhere that their fee was a whopping 4%. You must be so pleased.
Anyway, I hope that the above helps to allay some of your concerns and to reduce anxiety levels.
Cheers
Nev
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