AR9

2.56%

8.0¢ archtis limited

Ann: Investor Presentation - Quarterly Results, page-46

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alonso

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12/02/24

15:56

Post #: 72363560
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Originally posted by tropic: ↑

On this occasion I have to agree with you Rasaj.
I finally got around to listening/watching the presentation and reading the quarterly in more detail. In a nutshell the Company is grossly undervalued. If we look at the share price comprising of two components - the component supported by fundamentals and speculative component; current share price probably reflects fundamentals(and probably a bit low) and the speculative component is zero.

I don't put much weight on the percentage increase in financials performance because it's compared to FY23 and we know that FY23 was a shocker! It had to go up else we would be in big trouble. So while 144% increase in revenue sounds great in absolute terms it's an increase of $1.5M. A drop of 40% in Opex equates to $800k. It's the absolute numbers that matter however it's pleasing that they are heading in the desired direction. Having 8 quarters of operating cash available gives me comfort that we won't need a capital raise unless we need to set up for a big contract.

What I found interesting and cause for optimism is Kurt's and Dan's view of what will rerate the share price:
1. +ve cash flow
2. Large (Aus) defence licencing deal
3. International (US/Canada) defence licencing deal

There seemed to be a lot of confidence on these. Coupling that with customer growth underpinned by their enterprise licencing to whole of Government licencing strategy the foundations have been set for substantial growth. The fact that the market now is coming to AR9 rather than having to push AR9 into the market is pleasing. The share price speculative component should be much higher than zero(should be adding an additional 5-10c). I suspect it isn't because of past performance(not delivering on expectations) however we now have much more solid foundations. When a Company does not deliver on expectations it will wipe out the speculative component and will only be rebuilt with achievement.

I'm cautiously optimistic and it is a good time to accumulate. There is still substantial risk because we have the business in one sector and we are not diversifying risk however with concentrated effort they may pull this off.

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What I found interesting and cause for optimism is Kurt's and Dan's view of what will rerate the share price:1. +ve cash flow2. Large (Aus) defence licencing deal3. International (US/Canada) defence licencing deal

But when is it going to happen?

Last edited by alonso: 12/02/24

AR9 Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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