I'm not a fan of oil and gas companies putting a % of success on a well or prospect/lead. Even with a ll the seismic the only way to know 100% is drill a well. Look how certain the nutters on the bph thread are of sucess and $6.50 a share thread or what ever.
And how certain they were the 1st time round...
I Keep it simple and don't over think it.
I look at it as Every one in essence is 50/50 it is a success or its not . Even if the "chance" is 75% success. There is still only 2 real outcomes .
Ann: Drilling Update for Giant Welchau Gas Prospect, page-21
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