Projected turning points:
Looks like a major wave 1 is now (finally) completed after an amazing run. Based on that I have projected turns for this retrace at 257 & 244 (61 and 78% fibs respectively). Wave 3 target is nuts at 383, but that is the projection.
The CSL112 trigger broke the rising wedge, which gave an immediate fall target to 284.9, (the arrow) which in turn broke the wave 1 sufficiently to start wave 2 retrace. (ie it took it out of the channel. Wave 2 is normally either a 5 cycle retrace or morec commonly an A(down)-B(Up)-C(down) pattern with A having 5 steps, B 3 and C 5. Based on the hourly we have had 3 steps so far, and those have given a target for the first (and possibly only) 5 wave cycle of 261.7, which ties into the 61% fib retrace AND the bottom of the Itchimoku channel (the green shaded area) which also shows the first retrace target which is about now at 279 - the top of the shaded area. So we might expect a bounce around here but it is likely to continue down to rhe 61% or 78% yet, giving a ABC pattern.
So if I had to guess, which I kind of do, I'd say we have a wave 1 downstep to 284'ish, wave 2 up to 294, wave 3 down to 278 wave 4 up to 284 wave 5 down to 262'ish. That would be the A wave OR it might be the complete retrace. Assuming the full 78% retrace, however, we switch into a 3 step rising sequence that could top about 292, and the retrace to around 244.5, before beginning the major wave 3 rising cycle.
My instinct is for just a single 5 step 61% retrace, but that is less common than the full on 5-3-5 step fall to 78% in wave 2.
Of course, when the div is Ex the SP will take a big hit so that is likely to be the 11 March, so that gives us a possible trigger for the C wave, but I think that is too far away as these movements seem to be forming in the hourly chart rather than the daily.
Which gives us something like this:
