Back of the envelope strategy from here ... that I think MT is espousing.
Target neurodegenerative disorders, everything else drops to lower priority ( including canine and cancer ).
Lead condition MND/ALS.
Assume very strong results from MEND, target partner for MND/ALS before entering phase 2/3 study.
Upfront payment, significant payment on accelerated FDA approval from phase 2/3 Healey platform trial, tiered royalties
Partner runs 12 - 18 month phase 3. Tiered royalties on sales / % market share.
Similar to below, highlighted by MT.
Total deal USD $1.5B
Funds from MND License deal used to start Phase 1/2 trials in nominated neurodegenerative disorders.
- Frontotemporal dementia
- Alzheimer's Disease
- Parkinson's Disease
- Huntington's Disease
With known safety profile, trials can be accelerated.
Partners are accepted for each condition as trials progress, as per MND - but against much larger conditions / market sizes..
Company value rapidly grows as the power of MPL in inducing autophagy in cells and dispensing of unwanted & toxic deposits to allow the neurons to stabilise & repair is demonstrated.
At any time in the above process, be ready for a BP to step in and say "enough is enough", we will buy the lot - valued against several neurodegenerative conditions.
The value at this time, if MPL has shown as efficacious against at least 2 conditions above ( Frontotemporal dementia / Alzheimer's Disease ).
IMHO > USD 10B ... but it's difficult to actually get your head around the possible valuation.
But, first things first, deliver a jaw dropping top line MEND report in a few weeks time.
Then hold on for dear life fellow shareholders.
ALL IMO of course.
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