I don't normally play in this sandpit so apologies if my stuff is a bit outta whack compared with the norm and also apologies for long winded ramble etc etc. Also please note v well that I don't trade stocks at the moment and have not done so for three plus years... last time I traded stocks I knew nothing and made a hash of it, however in the last three years I've kinda imporved a bit in my analysis techniques on other instruments so what I see MAY have some relevance.
Wobbly I have had a bitof a detailed look at RFE and tho I know yer question was more on potential upside targets I have taken the liberty of throwing everything at the chart to see wot sticks...
Here's the result, skimmed from my blog...
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mmmmm I have not looked at a specific stock chart with my current alnalysi skillz, n my attention was brought to a RedForkEnergy chart.
This chart intrigued me and so I am going to hit it with what I've got and see what happens.
Firstly the weekly chart:
Unfortunately this is all the data I have on this charting package and what we have here is actually a cfd.. it will be very similar to the real underlying.
On this main chart momentum to the downside is Slowing, represented by the lower lows on the macd histograms, n highlighted by the red line.
just because momentum is slowing does not mean movement in a downward direction has stopped, however price can be seen to have exited a downward sloping channel and as such has as a minimum changed the angle of the dwontrend that has been in play from mid 2009.
Looking at the MACD Moving Averages for this timespan...
we gave entered an interesting time here, as these moving averages on this timespan are starting to hint upside MAY be in the offing soonish. Right now, this is pre-emptive though looking purely at the weekly. Another LOW on price, whith divergence STILL showing on the MACD histograms and moving averages would make me more positive about buying.
Looking at some other stuff, The highlighted gap was met and closed last may... from my observations of gaps in a chart, these things show Critical price levels over time. Bottoms of gaps provide strog support, tops of gaps provide strong resistance.
The circled area is what has my attention and what really got me intrigued about this chart. To my jaded eyes, what is going on here has the POTENTIAL of being a strong basing pattern.
In the past being the simple lad I am I have called these setups "Triangle Trades" n describe em as thus:
Price enters and traces a decline. Resistance is found (lefthand side of circle) Price forms a intermediate peak, retests the resistance (right hand side of circle) n then proceeds to the upside.
In its most surprising form these setups can result in something like this:
Of course, that is the most exciting case scenario, however oft the top of the triangle (current local peak in the real price chart) oft acts as resistance.
the trades themselves can be a bit tricky to get on, as one has to have faith that the resistance is true, and indeed said resistance can still fail...
Oright, once more back to the main price chart ... Reposted for ease of reading...
Let's say, for some reason that price did Eventually turn and the current marked n mentioned Divergence as shown on the MACD signals plays out to the upside..
"Short Term" Tech targets are shown in the highlighted areas... The higher yellow corresponds to an exoteric Winkinatcha Extreme Macd Histogram" thing where I take price at the start of divergence and use the previous resistance (in a down trend) to that price level as a worthy target. this provides the highlighted yellow range. The blue highlight shows localised noise and prvious support that one can expect price to baulk at, giving a conservative upside target, and of course the more localised red line at the level of the last high.
Now to check the guts of local price action via the daily:
Mkay, here we have quite strong divergence showing for this whole decline.
The target to meet the divergence as per the winkinatcha "extreme histogram targetting method" as mentioned on weekly is highlighted by the yellow area, and note also the teensy gap at the bottom of that range...
The level marked by the blue line not only highlights the lower gap as mentioned in the weekly chart but also brings in some interesting historical price reaction to this level going back to early 2008.
This level with have some significance in long term holders' minds...
The purple highlighted area to me is actually now the sweet spot for entering longs...
Taking a quick gander at the mACD moving averages...
once more divergence showing through here, and room for another PRICE low or equal low to still hold the divergence in place...
going back to the sweet spot in the daily price chart above, there are a number of things I like about this area... The potential of price to retest the broken downsloping trendline... the very significant resistance ate .29 ish, and the potential for price, in this zone to satisfy a buy signal on the MACD sub indicators... primarily the moving averages and their potential to make a higher low to price's lower low... STILL TO OCCUR THO.
So...
Were I to trade this, after a bit o f more fundamental background in the co to reassure myself that the chances of this going to zero are not high...
I would actually consider buying a small (and I do mean small) starter parce around these levels.
Should a new low form, and I mean actually form as in price goes lower, then comes up from that level... I would consider adding/opening a larger parcel.
I certainly would consider a buy order around .3
Then hopefuully be chill, sit on my hands and let it cook (which I presume could take months) with a revisit back at the triangle tip, either looking to lighten the longs n reasses (.65 level) or to start hunting for ways to ADD to push for higher targets around the $1.15 level.
