I think it is a bit superficial just to say Germany are axing their purchase incentives for EVs and so it is all over. The European Union have a very complex framework in place and member states need to report their progress on their commitments. Not sure if you have come across the EAFO but here is a link to familiarize yourself if you wish: Target tracker | European Alternative Fuels Observatory (europa.eu).
The UK government may flounder around with their EV targets but the fact of the matter is that the trajectory is still very strong with EV growth and will likely remain so: "The one millionth electric vehicle (EV) made its way on to British roads in January, with continued strong demand seeing a 21% increase in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in the first month of the year." (UK hits one million EV milestone (thedriven.io)).
As for Trump (who hasn't been elected yet), he says a lot of things in the spur of the moment but some people who are close to him clearly state that Trump recognizes the importance of Lithium: " “I want us to be very thoughtful so that however we set this (lithium royalty) up, it’s done correctly,” said Sanders, who served as White House press secretary from 2017 to 2019 under former President Donald Trump. Sanders said Trump sees lithium production as part of his push to bolster US energy independence.“I have full confidence that President Trump sees the importance of lithium to an all-of-the-above energy strategy,” Sanders said." (Lithium players to gather in Arkansas as low prices pressure industry - MINING.COM).
Also an interesting extract from an article here: "The lithium chemical price fell over 80% from highs in Jan 2023 and bottomed a year later. The first price rise from these lows was in early February 2024, and it has held the gains so far.Overstocking and lower-than-expected EV demand caused destocking across the board in the lithium-related supply chain. This inventory adjustment may have now run its course.EV demand is >60% in China and 30% EU, with U.S. just around 8%. U.S. demand is slow, but China will continue to grow, and exports of Chinese EVs will grow faster.European demand is mandated, so that will also grow. The U.S. doesn't matter, and apart from Canberra, Australia doesn't matter.Lithium demand overall remains strong, so the current price of ~US$13500/t will delay new lithium sources needing much higher prices, so a price recovery is essential. It is useful to watch the prices of the Lithium ETFs and the major producers of primary lithium.Note that Australia produces ~53% of global primary, with China about 10% and the brines the rest. Europe is nil.China produces ~65% of refined lithium products, Australia ~1%, and Europe nil. Australian spodumene is critical to the world. As is DLE for brines ( See LKE)" (Lithium Stocks Turn Upward Expert Says (streetwisereports.com)).
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