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17/02/24
18:40
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Originally posted by moorookamick:
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I guess the difference here is: -Capital punishment for Navalny or potentially 130 years jail for Assange We'll have to wait until next week to see if the Poms allow extradition to the USA. But back to the war: Given that the winter produced the expected stalemate (minimal gains by either side) it will be interesting to see what Spring/Summer coughs up. While the original motive of the war wasn't territory (whether the Ukraine should join NATO or remain neutral) any negotiated settlement will like be about Ukrainian territory vs enforceable assurances that the Ukraine will remain neutral.....IE, not join NATO. There are 2 extreme scenarios: (a) That the UAF will force RAF off all Ukrainian territory and restore pre 2014 borders (b) That the UAF will collapse giving way to more territory falling to Russia. IMO the negotiated settlement (if there is one) will be somewhere in between and given that Russia's red line is Georgia, Moldova or the Ukraine joining NATO, it looks like a Neutral Ukraine will be the nub of any negotiated settlement...otherwise it'll be ongoing war and may the best side win!!!
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Agree mostly with your assessment moorookamick. Russia, I think, won't feel safe unless Ukraine becomes neutral via a negotiated settlement or is neutralised by Russian brute force. However I don't think, given Russia's battlefield advantages of troop numbers, weaponry, and air superiority, that further substantial conquest of Ukraine territory represents an extreme scenario.