"So little downside from the GA not getting any traction but big upside on development. You can't ask for a better risk/reward from an investment than that."
Yes. But at this stage if I were a new investor I would probably invest slowly and incrementally into this stock while waiting for more confirmative signal, not hastily bank on the GA and all the positivity displayed thus far by the company. If anything, last 3 years has been a big lesson.
"Well my guess is that you won't be waiting long for that. A JV or similar deal with a major might give the market all the signal that it needs. We know MNB has had a lot of interest so something like that could drop at any time."
I have no reason or facts to disagree with this, but my gut feeling is the opposite: we will be waiting long for any significant development on the GA. A long time ago, the company said it's in discussion with an explosive company, and "failing that, we believe that we will find another partner and have a reasonable chance of funding" (not exact words something along that line). Now a long time has passed since and it doesn't tell us how that discussion went and instead told us again that there are interested partners, so I wouldn't necessarily believe that a lot has progressed since then. PFS completion timeline still not provided.
I have a hard time trusting Lindsay after all what happened, so I am going to discount all what he says a lot. For what it's worth, other parties might have just approached MNB on the GA for preliminary queries and MNB would say that it's receiving significant interest, we don't really know.
Of course when things actually happen the way he said would happen, my (and probably other investors') distrust would abate, its sp would also increase significantly. Risk assessment is dynamic not static. It is high at the moment but doesn't have to remain that way. Lindsay just needs to prove he's got it. So far it's been a bit of a ****show in terms of timelines and project management, which is to be honest not extremely surprising given this team's credentials.
So while I think GA is a possibility on the card and has the blue sky potential, I also believe the road to get there might be longer than we are currently expecting.
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