Ann: Profit Guidance, page-53

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CaptainBarnacles

11,245 Posts.

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21/02/24

21:36

Post #: 72522691
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Originally posted by CaptainBarnacles ↑

For the interests of balance here: I'm sure I'll get very few TUs for this!

So they knew what the earnings for Jan were already! So buyers have been buying this for at least a month without being aware of this news. Has management lost their marbles? They have lost their credibility with me. I remember a (IMO) BS short report that landed a blow because they had listed locations that they didn't occupy. This seems far worse. I can't imagine why they haven't disclosed this 25% miss to guidance. Sadly they'll have lawyers all over this one I suspect.

With EBITDA up 60% in the US, with the March q in pcp $10m, that is targeting $16m EBITDA (AUD) for this March quarter in the US at that run rate of growth. Sounds lowish to me, as are we not supposed to get 41m USD for half 2? I don't believe we have been told the full story about what is going on in the US. If anything comes and clobbers this business it will start in the US IMO. Expedia had a plunge in Jan - not sure why.

The five year growth strategy has the same underlying metrics as we have already been provided with in the past. Was hoping it was new news!

Many analysts on fnarena had been lauding CTP: 10/1/24: "The broker argues developing proprietary technology has allowed Corporate Travel to venture into niches such as government, where global competitors have historically been less focused, as well as in smaller sized businesses."
20/10/23: "Corporate Travel Management's Q1 trading update marks a strong start into FY24, UBS finds. The broker believes there's strong upside risk for the remainder of the year."

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Typo - 41m AUD

CTD Price at posting: $15.85 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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