Ann: Quarterly Activity and Cashflow Report, page-215

Lets get back to Stonehorse Energy

CLARIFICATION ON STONEHORSE ENERGY GRAPHS
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The projections was made using the information available from:
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1) Historic ASX Announcements:
2) Stonehorse energy CEO statements on the investment hub.
3) Gas, NGL, Condenstate and WTI Oil prices.

Definition :
A set of wells consists of 1 Canadian Certus type well and 1 Canadian Grphon type well and their multiple Earned sections.

Vertical axis:
The EBIT (Earnings before interest and taxation) accumulated + current cash position for different number of wells opening over the next few years is plotted against the number of months ( X Axis)

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If we assume that the Enterprise value / Earnings Ratio is Zero (this is supper conservative) then we can calculate future share price by just dividing the 'Cash and equivalents holdings' by number of shares whilst assuming a zero enterprise value.
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This is currently how Stoenhorse energy is behaving as the Enterprise value hovers near 0.
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Scenario of no more wells
Their is also the scenario that Stonehorse Energy open's up no more wells at all this year profiting only from its current wells pumping over the next 10 to 20 years. Thus in less than 18 months they will claw back the initial investment and then some meaning its current cash and equivalents value will rise above 13 million.
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This scenario is highly unlikely as
1) The CEO will be voted out ,
2) The CEO, Bill and Mike have said their are lots of opportunities and a independent check has confirmed this.
3) They have the cash and income flow and undrawn credit facility to achieve multiple sets of wells.
4) They have repeatedly stated their intention, so i think 1 set of wells will materialize in 2024, then 2 to 3 over the next year.
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Dividends
David Deloub has stated that Stonehorse energy has no Official dividend policy ,but has indicated dividends after 2024, this could be 2025 or 2026 etc,
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Once dividend are paid then Enterprise value to EBIT ratio will almost certainly rise above 0.0 to get closer the TRBC or GICS sector mean.
which sits around 3 to 6 for nano caps. the whole sector is varies between 6 and 11.
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Readers can work out what this is if SHE sustained Annual EBIT is over 10 million.
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I can post further a breakdown of how the future EBIT graphs were calculated in a separate parallel thread with drill downs as far as needed.
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Stonehorse delay of a rising share price
Looking at graph 3 , If SHE goes for 3 sets of wells ,then the cash won't start accumulating until after 20 months (thus will delay dividends) but the cash will pile up over the following 5 years taking SHE to over 100's cash of million of dollars if they stop investing after the 3rd set.
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The question is 'Will the broader market recognize Stonehorse strategy and buy in thus raising the share price' or will only the T10/T20 holders be holding patiently knowing they will get multi baggers returns in a few years.
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This is why i am holding and don't care what the share price does in the short term.
I believe 3 sets of wells is Challenging but very possible with the right team given the Canadian opportunists and hence the building of a Canadian Team with recent addition of Ms Manning to negotiate sales .
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I also believe that more wells this year will confirm Stonehorse strategy and maybe giving market investors confidence to invest.
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