This is the part I'd question in the OP's thesis as well. It seems to assume, worst case, that there will be modest growth in the free to air television market. However, everything I'm seeing points to a structural shift in viewing habits away from linear, scripted broadcast television, towards social media content like TikTok, YouTube and Instagram.
I must admit, even though I grew up watching a lot of TV, I haven't watched any TV in the last several years. What's appealing to me now is the combination of 1) picking who you want to watch, on say, YouTube, as opposed to TV execs choosing the person you watch, 2) that person being more free to be who they are, and creating their own content (as opposed to someone performing from a script which tends to be predictable and formulaic over time) 4) having a far, far greater universe of content to choose from and 3) the content being ad free, consumable anytime, anywhere, in any form you choose (FTA digital channels has now come closer to offering this, but still not quite there, e.g. no ad free option)
I noticed NEC (Channel 9) this week predicting a continued decline in their TV division for the first 3 months of 2024. This does not bode well for the legacy media bulls.
I haven't crunched any numbers for SWM, but I think in general if revenue is continually declining, it's very hard to make money on any stock.
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