I'm not trying to defend the situation here but just shining some light on why it may make sense:
- Analysts have upgraded their medium range IO price assumptions to the low 90's... whatever.
- Under that scenario FMG's earnings have a bit of downward tilt from FY25 going from $1.15 to $1.00, whereas RIO's stay flat around $7.10 per share.
- That puts FMG on a forward PE of say 27x (using $1.05 earnings) and RIO is on 17.5x so that changes the picture quite a bit.
I think FMG's margins would be more sensitive to the IO price though, so perhaps at the current IO price FMG and RIO's forward PE's might be more similar if I could be bothered working it all out in full at spot.
The above numbers are taken from Goldman's research.
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 1302 | 17.310 |
4 | 4250 | 17.300 |
2 | 2522 | 17.290 |
2 | 1080 | 17.280 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
17.350 | 27484 | 2 |
17.380 | 1000 | 1 |
17.450 | 500 | 1 |
17.480 | 1000 | 1 |
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