Yes, the use of derivative structures only serves to make the already opaque market even more so. I was full of suspicion right from the outset when these markets were set up by Chinese entities (= Shanghai Metals Exchange, I think).
I had experience in the early days of Credit Default Swaps which were then bespoke contracts based on insurance against defaults. Anyone who has watched "The Big Short" will have seen how investment banks were able to provide quotations for trading these instruments that at times totally defied the fundamentals of the market they were based on. These lithium markets are little different insofar as they are not deep markets and so can be easily manipulated with modest amounts of capital.
Getting access to more legitimate data points is as you say, necessary at the very least. Better still have markets for derivatives in regulated markets in non Chinese jurisdictions.
regards
DF
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