APA

0.24%

$8.40 apa group

Ann: APA 1H24 Interim Financial Results, page-25

First 25 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
swaggytrader

1,474 Posts.

182

02/03/24

08:27

Post #: 72707991
Share

Originally posted by Winniethepoo: ↑

Another perspective on those points would be:

1. I don't think free cash per share is not misleading. A full period of contribution from Pilbara will also see higher interest costs, higher SIB capex and higher tax. I dont see how Pilbara is free cash accretive. The average cost of new debt issued in relation to acquisition was about 8% for annual debt cost of about $80m (based on $1bn debt for Pilbara). EBITDA for Pilbara is expected to be about $130m on annual basis in FY24. This leaves max contribution of $50m (130 less 80) to free cash before even accounting for SIB capex and tax. With over 100m new shares issued for Pilbara that $50m is less than 50c of free cash for each of those new shares compared to APA Group earning over 90c/share of free cash before the acquisition. Very happy to be corrected on this but I cant make the maths work.

2. What basis do you have to say gas generation volumes will increase? Forecasts from likes of AEMO have gas generation volumes falling.

3. What has fx got to do with the weaker credit metrics? APAs debt metrics are getting weaker as shown by lower FFO:debt in latest result.

4. APA could charge higher prices when contracts renew. But they might end up having to accept lower prices too. I wouldn't invest on assumption that they will be able to charge higher prices at same time as regulatory pressure is stepping up on pipelines and higher cost of living environment pushing back on companies looking to price gouge.

5. Increased capacity is fine if it is matched by increased earnings. But it hasnt matched earnings. And I wouldnt assume that there will be a "catch up" in earnings. Higher costs tend to be sticky in my view.

6. Higher capex is fine if matched be increased earnings. But it isnt. Earnings are not up 100% since FY22 while these capex items are. That is a drag on free cash.

7. It is still going to be a drag on free cash over next few years as it normalises. And will it normalise at prior levels or at a higher level?

Expand

well apparently Jeffries and Morning star don't see what you see. Weird hey!

APA Price at posting: $7.88 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

STX

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

Plagues precede widespread power shifts. We’re living in one – and minerals are at the fore

EMD

Emyria's Empax Centre chosen for mental health clinical trial

ASX Market Update: Shares fall flat as GYG soars on debut | 20 June, 2024

SBW

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

FHE

Frontier Energy achieves key milestone for Waroona energy project

RDN

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

BRX

Belararox delineates another porphyry in Argentina at Tambo South

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

AML

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...

First 25 Last

Add APA (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $8.40		Change 0.020(0.24%)		Mkt cap ! $10.78B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$8.38	$8.42	$8.34	$43.32M	5.157M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	201196	$8.39

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$8.41	3373	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3164	8.370
2	5500	8.360
10	10197	8.350
6	28530	8.340
4	7320	8.330

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.420	12268	3
8.440	2937	1
8.450	2317	3
8.470	2365	1
8.480	5000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

APA (ASX) Chart

Ann: APA 1H24 Interim Financial Results, page-25

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

Plagues precede widespread power shifts. We’re living in one – and minerals are at the fore

Emyria's Empax Centre chosen for mental health clinical trial

ASX Market Update: Shares fall flat as GYG soars on debut | 20 June, 2024

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

Frontier Energy achieves key milestone for Waroona energy project

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

Belararox delineates another porphyry in Argentina at Tambo South

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: APA 1H24 Interim Financial Results, page-25

Top Stories

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

Plagues precede widespread power shifts. We’re living in one – and minerals are at the fore

Emyria's Empax Centre chosen for mental health clinical trial

ASX Market Update: Shares fall flat as GYG soars on debut | 20 June, 2024

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25

Frontier Energy achieves key milestone for Waroona energy project

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

Belararox delineates another porphyry in Argentina at Tambo South

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News