I'm keen to hear how you arrived at $5 mate. That's at least a $7b market cap, if not more through further dilution. In three years time, AGY won't even have the 10 ktpa expansion up and running.
The current spot price is around USD$14.5k/t, but let's be generous and work off a long term average sales price of US$25k per tonne. But then we need to factor in a discount for a long-term offtake. Again let's be conservative and roll with a 10% discount. As we know, nothing is perfect, so let's assume production at 90% of nameplate and keep things simple by assuming everything is battery grade.
2 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne after OPEX
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
2000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 1800 tpa gross production
1800 tpa x 0.775 (AGY JV share) = 1395 tpa AGY share of production
1395 tpa x US$9.6k = US$13.392m or A$20.519m annual profit.
A$20.519m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$19m net profit per year
A$19m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $228m MC
$228m (MC) / 1.4b (SOI) = 16.28 cents share price
12 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
12000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 10800 tpa gross production
10800 tpa x 0.9 (AGY JV share) = 9720 tpa AGY share of production
9720 tpa x US$9.6k = US$93.312m or A$142.977m annual profit.
A$142.977m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$141.5m net profit per year
A$141.5m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $1.698b MC
$1.698b / 1.4b (SOI) = $1.21 share price
These numbers are IMO only, but I think some of my estimates err on the optimistic side. I don't actually think AGY will consistently produce at 90% nameplate, nor do I think they will achieve 100% battery grade. I also don't think they'll remain at 1.4b SOI, as I think we'll be diluted along the way (either to fix the 2 ktpa plant or to form part of the funding for the 10 ktpa expansion). Additionally, we need to factor in the payback period, whether that is debt or pre-paid offtake which amounts to foregone revenue. Importantly, the 10 ktpa expansion won't even be built by early 2027, so I really struggle to see how anyone could arrive at such an optimistic share price of $5 in three years time.
I'm happy for my numbers to be picked apart as necessary, we're all here to learn (I hope).
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- AGY
- General Discussion AGY
General Discussion AGY, page-21359
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 1,850 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add AGY (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
9.3¢ |
Change
0.007(8.14%) |
Mkt cap ! $135.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
8.9¢ | 9.4¢ | 8.7¢ | $168.6K | 1.860M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 100000 | 9.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
9.3¢ | 299999 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 100000 | 0.090 |
3 | 472915 | 0.089 |
3 | 78883 | 0.088 |
2 | 184482 | 0.087 |
4 | 164883 | 0.086 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.093 | 299999 | 1 |
0.094 | 14000 | 1 |
0.095 | 269294 | 3 |
0.096 | 405763 | 3 |
0.097 | 50000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
AGY (ASX) Chart |