This one is kind of interesting. Obviously, circumstances during COVID led to an advantageous scenario for DSK as most corporate workers spent most of the working days at home.
Not only has inflation impacted discretionary spending, which home fragrances by nature I'd imagine to be heavily impacted, the shift to back to the office from most corporate places would also be a structural change that's permanent when compared to a 5 days WFH scenario. If I had to guess, I'd expect the number of loyalty members to continue to decline as we're approaching that 2-year period. It'll be approaching the time people are going to be asked to re-subscribe, and they'll likely make different choices as situations are different now. Hence, I actually think this business has changed fundamentally, at least when compared to the glory period of 2020-2022. Some may argue that Dusk is really in the gifting business. Though, I think now that people are not spending all their time in their homes, people will revisit what they think is an ideal gift.
That being said, I personally find it difficult to picture Dusk going into chapter 11. I think there will be an attractive entry point for this one and I'll keep it on my watchlist within the next couple of years. From my perspective, if DSK can somehow return to similar profitability of 2022 (not even 2021 peak) at today's prices or even lower, the dividend yield alone would make this an extremely attractive investment even if you have to spend a year in the red.
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