Daily 1 Mar
Positives
All my regular indicators are inpositive territory. At this stage the stochastics are at or into the overbought area. These can stay there for some time however before generating a sell signal.
Negatives
None of my regular indicators are showing any negative signs at this stage.
Outlook.
With no reported changes to the fundamentals warranting the large gap open & apparent change in sentiment theremoval of AGY from the ASX 300 may be behind it but I am not entirely convinced that is the sole reason or if at all.
In the last 11 trading days there hasbeen aprox 17.8m net buying so it seems that someone has been steadily buying while capping & this may have finally set off some alarms.
If it is short related, there is also no evidence as at the 26 Feb that shorts have been covering & the number of borrowed shares has remained static with few to none returned as at the 28 Feb
So, if this is a true change in sentiment behind the sudden gap Frid, what is driving it?
Maybe it’s the rising Li price, (mirrored by the steady net buying vol. recently) potentially insider knowledge or expectations of what is in the next announcement.
If any of the above, then we may see afurther gap on the next bar which may see 18 – 20 reached before the inevitable foot on the breaks.
Whatever the reasons, AGY’s history offilling gaps is well known & should not be ignored. Currently 94% closure rate in 2 - 6 periods.
If /when the pull back comes it is reasonable to expect a retest back down around 12 (currently 61%) or 13(currently 50%)
If AGY again misses deadlines & expectations for this Qtr are not realised then the sp will again come under pressure.
At this time though it’s nice to have the warm fuzzy feelings that a recovery brings & I would be looking for support around 13 & resistance initially around 18.
Hang in there.
Weekly
Positives
Stoch 14 has crossed out of the oversold area, is above the sig line & rising.
Histogram is above zero
MACD is above the sig line & rising
Negatives
Stoch 14 is in the bearish zone below 50
The high is at / near resistance
If there is no retesting of the breakout point around 11.5 - 12 on the next bar, a FVG pattern will form on the next barwith 13 being the low side base.
Outlook
I would like to think that the change insentiment is for the right reasons so I will assume that we will continue therise & test the next wkly resistance around 17 – 20.
We will eventually though get the usual reversal& the old resistance of 11.5 – 13 should become support.
Shorter's are still playing around &despite the sp rise & there is no evidence of covering at this stage as atthe 26 Feb.
I suspect there are not that many that need covering until we get back above 20.
The trend has not reversed yet imo but is close if allowed to continue.
Monthly
Very positive outlook going into March.
At the end of Feb the chart showed support around 9 & the indicators continuing to turn positive.
The Stoch has crossed out of the oversold area & is above the sig line & rising.
The Histogram continues to rise &the MACD is doing the same but has further to go to become bullish.
We are currently at resistance from 15 –18.
There is a gap at 13.5 – 14. The mthly stats show a 67% close rate.
If the filtration issues are fixed &some of the other milestones can be achieved this month then there is no reason that the sp cannot recover back above 20 by months end.
A failure to fix the current production issues will of course be a drag on the sp but we will get there.
