The numbers on the independent DFS from July 1st 2021 state an annual revenue of $240M USD from 19,500 Tonnes of Talnode C.
If they can achieve an offtake of $11k USD and the capex hasn't risen too sharply the operating profit will be around $170M and a net profit of around $110M all going well.
If we use a conservative PE of 10 times. We would look at a market cap of $1.1B USD or $1.65B AUD. Our current market cap $335M AUD. This is when we are in full production. Therefore if the market values the business like this after all the boxes are ticked, the upside would be 5 x times current share price. Which is around $4. If we were in 2021 this would be a given.
I think it will take a strong change in market sentiment around battery materials and proven revenue and numbers to get to this level in the medium term. However if the project is completely de-risked with offtakes, finance and permits. $2 could happen pretty quickly. As always DYOR...
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