what do others think?

I wonder how others view the issue of going into the first (of presumably 3) drills in L20/L50 by CVN/SUR with either the whole amount of stock or free-carried?
Just for illustrative purposes (and purely on a number of ASSUMPTIONS - as clearly stated), let me compare the two scenarios as follows. (These assumptions do NOT apply to me - I bought in higher than 7.8c ! And my stockholding for SUR is not 1.0 mio. shares either....)
Assumptions:
1) A person bought 1 mio. SUR at 7.8c average
2) The SUR stock price before spudding will reach 12c (??)
3) IF CVN/SUR find oil in the first drill, SUR's sp will go to 24c (???)
4) IF NO oil found in the first drill, SUR's sp will "crash" back down to 6c (but may well recover to at least 7.8c ahead of the second drill????)
A) Free-carried scenario:
Bought 1.0 mio. SUR at 7.8c = $ 78'000
Sold pre-spud 650'000 SUR at 12c = 78'000
Free-carried into drill = 350'000 SUR shares
Oil found:
350'000 times 24c = 84'000 + 78'000 = 162'000
B) NOT free-carried scenario (higer RISK one):
Bought 1.0 mio. SUR at 7.8c = $ 78'000
Oil found:
1'000'000 times 24c = 240'000 (= in this ASSUMED scenario a 48% higher return than with free-carried).
Is this worth the RISK?
Comments most welcome.
wasa